The prime minister would be mad to call an election on Sunday or Monday

To put it bluntly, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would be foolish to call a federal election this Sunday or Monday.

Speculation has been mounting that Albanese was waiting for Saturday’s West Australian election to drive to Yarralumla and request the Governor-General issue a writ in time for an April 12 election but then Cyclone Alfred meandered onto the political stage.

In a country where drought and flooding rains, beauty and terror, are part of the national identity, Albanese would be foolhardy not to put the election announcement on hold as south-east Queensland and northern NSW face the first cyclone to hit the coast so far south since Cyclone Zoe devastated Brisbane and northern NSW in 1974.

Cyclone Alfred has concentrated the nation’s mind on the catastrophe and certainly, if not temporarily, relegated the federal election to a secondary issue in the public view.

It is uncertain what lies ahead. But the wind, the rain, the surf and the tidal surges lashing densely populated cities and coastal regions indicates significant flood damage and widespread personal and property damage.

Natural disasters have a history of ruining the best laid plans of mice and politicians.

Malcolm Fraser’s last ditch effort to hold off Bob Hawke was his February 15, 1983, federal election policy speech but that afternoon the Ash Wednesday fires erupted across Victoria and the then prime minister’s media coverage went up in smoke. Few dared mention politics as Victoria struggled with the disaster right up to the March 5 election day.

More recently, Scott Morrison offered an object lesson in the dangers of dismissing nature. When fires swept down the east coast in the Black Summer of 2019, Morrison’s jaunt in Hawaii forever damaged his image as an astute politician, a perception he garnished with the words “I don’t hold a hose, mate” to explain his absence when he finally returned home. Such a frontline tin ear continued to work against him during the 2022 pre-election Northern Rivers floods.

All this must surely be weighing on Albanese’s mind as he contemplates when to go for an election.